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Premium Models's FAQ

“People are often more willing to act based on little or no data than to use data that is a challenge to assemble.” - Robert J. Shiller
Are the discounts applicable to already subscribed models or just new ones?

Discounts are applicable to new models only.  It’s a tiered-system, where the first model is charged full price, the 2nd model has a 10% discount, the 3rd has a 20% discount and so forth.

Keep in mind that to keep these discounts, you need to maintain your active subscriptions.  For example, if you are currently subscribed to 3 models, then the 2nd model has a 10% discount and the 3rd model has a 20% discount.  If you cancel the subscription for one of the models, the discounts on the 2nd and 3rd model will have to be readjusted accordingly.  The readjustment will happen once the cancelled subscription expires.

How do I cancel a subscription?

Subscription is done per model, and charged monthly, from the moment that the subscription for that model started. Cancellation can be done anytime by going to Member’s Area menu -> Your Account -> Subscription.  To cancel it, just click on the Cancel button – you will continue to have access to that model until the next renew period.

Unfortunately there are no refund for cancellations – the subscription grants access for a month, and the cancellation ensures that the following month won’t be billed.

What is the subscription billing cycle?

The billing cycle starts on the day that you subscribe to that premium model.  It’s a recurring subscription, charged monthly from the day that you subscribe, until you cancel. If you subscribe to multiple models, each model will have its own billing cycle.

Which forms of payment do you accept?

We accept PayPal and major credit cards.  Credit cards are handled by Stripe payment gateway.

How are we notified about the buy / sell signals?

Signals are available once you login (on current holdings tab), and the premium subscriber is also notified via email.  Please see the Question below to learn how you can be notified via SMS as well.

Can you notify me with a text on my phone?

While SMS notifications are not being offered at this moment, you can set up a forward filter on your email client so that you receive a text (SMS) message when you get an email from [email protected] This way, you don’t need to keep checking emails frequently.  Please verify with your carrier the email address that needs to be configured as a forward rule.  It’s usually <YourCellNumber>@<SMSProviderDomain>.  Below are the examples as of June 2017 – this could change at anytime, so make sure to verify with your carrier for accuracy:

Just replace the 5551234567 with your cell phone from your carrier. This list was accurate as of June 2017, please verify with your carrier for accuracy.

Is it too late to follow it? When should I start?

I would personally wait until the next rebalance day to start, and buy its holdings spread equally. Be aware of your comission cost, to ensure that you have enough to trade to make sense.

What does "rebalance" / next signal mean?

Rebalance (or next signal) is the action item that the model generates at regular intervals (it could be either every week or every 4 weeks). It will contain new sell / buy signals if there’s anything to be bought or sold, or it specifically indicate that no action is required (nothing to sell, and nothing to buy).

How frequently does a model buy / sell stocks? Does it matter the time of the day that I buy or sell?

It varies per model, and it’s described on each model page.  All models are rebalaced either weekly or monthly, so they are not focused on day-trading or required to enter / exit at a specific time of the day.  All models are meant to give gains over a short period of times (weeks or months).  

Help! The model I'm following is DOWN (or underperforming the market)

Temperament  is  required when investing and trading.  It means enduring the oscillating price while staying put. The whole purpose of following an automated trading model is to take emotions out, so one must stick to the plan and follow it. In other words, if you want to benefit from a good strategy, you have to own the portfolio of stocks produced as a result of the strategy. If you pick and choose, your strategy is out the window and it’s between you and Lady Luck. Therefore, the strategy details, made of the idea and its rules are described clearly for each model, to evaluate if it meets one’s goal and risk tolerance.

There will be drawdowns and market underperformance (unrealized losses) – Backtests confirm it in many periods. It’s unrealistic to think that the model will always go up, all the time, or that it will outperform the market all the time. It will not and it’s by design. The models do not attempt to predict what the market might do. Instead, they attempt to buy and sell using different strategies, to manage the risks associated with potential losses. Successful investing (and trading) is not about avoiding risks, but about managing them. Most models do make use of market timing signal, simply to calculate the risk of holding equities versus other assets. Therefore, a model might switch to a fixed income asset when it detects equity risks, even if the market continues to outperform – it’s all about optimising the risk adjusted return.

Also, there will be realised losses. Trading is a probability business, and backtests shows a winning ratio between 50% to 60%, which means that about half of the closed transactions will be losers. However, statistics show that winners are closed for a much higher $ amount than losers, which makes a decent strategy in the long run.

Lastly, keep in mind that under-performance compared to the market is inaccurate, because adjusted-risk returns are not being considered – the model attempts to minimize drawdown, while the market doesn’t. The model does it by implementing different market timing rules – consistent, established and clear rules, so there are no gut feeling involved.

Trading (and investing) is a business, and therefore, it must be treated as such.  Therefore, emotions must be set aside. If one wants to abandon the ship, it must be due to a rational reason, not emotional.  So one needs to ask what is the rational reason to be worried.  Are the rules not valid anymore? The models are implementation of well established ideas, written by successful investors, with decades of out-of-sample to prove it. We’re simply automating these ideas.

Before trading (and investing), make sure that you understand the risks associated with these operations, the temperament required and verify how that aligns to your goals. If in doubt, please consult a professional advisor.

Lastly, I strongly recommend reading the following to avoid these trading mistakes.

Are you going to offer a model for International Stocks?

Currently Portfolio123 doesn’t have data for International Stocks.  Several members placed this request to them, and it’s on portfolio123’s pipeline to implement it.  Once it’s available, I will start working on trading models for that market, as it’s a great way to diversify and get exposure to that environment.

Are you going to offer a model for Bonds market?

It’s on my plans to build a model focused on moderate gains from fixed income assets, while maintaining a steady income without being subject to price volatility.  This would be great to park money for the short term while still being exposed to some small gains.

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