Continuing the valuation exercise that I started for the Canadian companies, I present the second part of my list of fairly valued US companies for this summer. The US stock market overall is overvalued, with many companies trading at unjustifiable valuation…. But even in a generally overvalued market, there are reasonable valuations to be found because every market, whether it is a bull market, or a bear market, will always contain overvalued, fairly valued and undervalued individual stocks within the universe.
This exercise is all about finding the intrinsic value of the business considering its past earnings / cash flow growth and what operating results the business is estimated to produce moving forward. The stock price calculation is a by-product of that, and the long term return will solely depend to identify if the stock is initially trading close to the calculated fair price.
To recap, these companies already passed my quality criteria. The exercise now is to evaluate if now is a good time to buy them / add more shares, considering how they are currently valued at, and what are earnings and cash flow expected to do. The decision to buy now is focused on the long term, because when we buy a stock today we are buying their earnings / cash flow potential, which takes time to manifest into the stock price.
The graphs below show the fair valuation via the orange line or blue line when present, which represents the typical earnings multiple ratio or cash flow / funds from operations multiple ratio for the business, given that these metrics were plotted based on Graham & Dodd formula or Lynch formula (depending on the growth ratio of the business). The black line is the stock price, which can swing in the short term, but it follows earnings / cash flow in the long term.
The list below shows which companies (that already met my quality criteria) are fairly valued or undervalued and estimated to grow.
US stocks that are fairly valued:
AbbVie Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products worldwide. The company offers HUMIRA, a biologic therapy administered as a subcutaneous injection for autoimmune diseases; IMBRUVICA, an oral therapy for patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia; and VIEKIRA PAK, an interferon-free therapy, with or without ribavirin, for the treatment of adults with genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C. It also provides Kaletra, an anti- human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 medicine used with other anti-HIV-1 medications as a treatment that maintains viral suppression in HIV-1 patients; Norvir, a protease inhibitor indicated in combination with other antiretroviral agents to treat HIV-1; and Synagis to prevent RSV infection at-risk infants. In addition, the company offers AndroGel, a testosterone replacement therapy for males diagnosed with symptomatic low testosterone; Creon, a pancreatic enzyme therapy for exocrine pancreatic insufficiency; Synthroid to treat hypothyroidism; and Lupron, a product for the palliative treatment of prostate cancer, endometriosis, and central precocious puberty, as well as for the treatment of patients with anemia. Further, it provides Duopa and Duodopa, a levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel to treat Parkinson’s disease; Sevoflurane, an anesthesia product for human use; and ZINBRYTA, a subcutaneous treatment for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. It serves wholesalers, distributors, government agencies, health care facilities, specialty pharmacies, and independent retailers from its distribution centers and public warehouses. AbbVie Inc. has a collaboration with Alector, Inc.; C2N Diagnostics; Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.; Janssen Biotech, Inc.; International Myeloma Foundation; Calibr and Scripps Research; The Institute for Research in Immunology and Cancer – Commercialization of Research; and the Universite de Montreal. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in North Chicago, Illinois.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities, products, and ingredients in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Carbohydrate Solutions, Nutrition, Oilseeds, and Origination. The company offers oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, rice, and barley; and structured trade finance, as well as processes wheat into wheat flour. It also provides sweeteners, starch, syrup, glucose, and dextrose; alcohol, amino acids, and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol; bio products; corn gluten feed and meal, and distillers’ grains; vegetable oil and protein meal; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; citric acids and glycols; glucose and native starch; and contract and private label pet treats and foods, and specialty ingredients. In addition, the company offers ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial products industries; crude vegetable and salad oils; margarine, shortening, and other food products; partially refined oils; oilseed protein meals; peanuts, tree nuts, and peanut-derived ingredients; cottonseed flour for the pharmaceutical industry; cotton cellulose pulp for the chemical, paper, and filter markets; and agricultural commodity raw materials. Further, it is involved in oil palm cultivation, oilseeds crushing, edible oils refining, packaged oils and foods, sugar milling and refining, specialty fats, oleo chemicals, biodiesel and fertilizers manufacturing, and grains processing. Additionally, the company provides natural flavor ingredients, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, natural health and nutrition products, and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; and futures commission merchant and insurance services. Archer-Daniels-Midland Company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Ameriprise Financial, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services to individual and institutional clients in the United States and internationally. It operates through Advice & Wealth Management, Asset Management, Annuities, and Protection segments. The Advice & Wealth Management segment provides financial planning and advice, as well as full-service brokerage services primarily to retail clients through its advisors. The Asset Management segment offers investment management and advice, and investment products to retail, high net worth, and institutional clients through unaffiliated third party financial institutions and institutional sales force. This segment’s products include U.S. mutual funds and their non-U.S. equivalents, exchange-traded funds, variable product funds underlying insurance, and annuity separate accounts; and institutional asset management products, such as traditional asset classes, separately managed accounts, individually managed accounts, collateralized loan obligations, hedge funds, collective funds, and property funds. The Annuities segment provides variable and fixed annuity products to individual clients through affiliated and unaffiliated advisors, and financial institutions. The Protection segment offers various products to address the protection and risk management needs of retail clients, including life, disability income, and property casualty insurance through advisors and affinity relationships. The company was formerly known as American Express Financial Corporation and changed its name to Ameriprise Financial, Inc. in September 2005. Ameriprise Financial, Inc. was founded in 1894 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota
American Tower, one of the largest global REITs, is a leading independent owner, operator and developer of multitenant communications real estate with a portfolio of approximately 170,000 communications sites. For more information about American Tower, please visit the “Earnings Materials” and “Company & Industry Resources” sections of our investor relations website at www.americantower.com.
The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment company worldwide. The company’s Media Networks segment operates cable programming services under the brand ESPN, Disney, and Freeform; broadcast businesses, which include the ABC TV Network and eight owned television stations; radio businesses consisting of the ESPN Radio network; and the Radio Disney network. It also produces and sells original live-action and animated television programming to first-run syndication and other television markets, as well as subscription video on demand services and in home entertainment formats, such as DVD, Blu-Ray, and electric home video license. Its Parks and Resorts segment owns and operates the Walt Disney World Resort in Florida and the Disneyland Resort in California. This segment also operates Disney Resort & Spa in Hawaii, Disney Vacation Club, Disney Cruise Line, and Adventures by Disney; and manages Disneyland Paris, Hong Kong Disneyland Resort, and Shanghai Disney Resort, as well as licenses its intellectual property to a third party for the operations of the Tokyo Disney Resort in Japan. The company’s Studio Entertainment segment produces and acquires live-action and animated motion pictures for distribution in the theatrical, home entertainment, and television markets primarily under the Walt Disney Pictures, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, and Touchstone banners. This segment also produces stage plays and musical recordings; licenses and produces live entertainment events; and provides visual and audio effects, and other post-production services. Its Consumer Products & Interactive Media segment licenses its trade names, characters, and visual and literary properties; develops and publishes mobile games; and sells its products through The Disney Store, shopDisney.com, and shop.Marvel.com, as well as directly to retailers. The company was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.
Dover Corporation provides equipment and components, specialty systems, consumable supplies, software and digital solutions, and support services worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Energy, Engineered Systems, Fluids, and Refrigeration & Food Equipment. The Energy segment provides solutions and services for the production and processing of fuels for drilling and production, bearings and compression, and automation end markets. The Engineered Systems segment offers precision marking and coding, digital textile printing, soldering and dispensing equipment, and related consumables and services; and automation components, including manual clamps, power clamps, rotary and linear mechanical indexers, conveyors, pick and place units, glove ports, and manipulators, as well as end-of-arm robotic grippers, slides, and end effectors for fast-moving consumer goods, digital textile printing, vehicle service, environmental solutions, and industrials end markets. The Fluids segment focuses on the safe handling of critical fluids across the retail fueling, chemical, hygienic, oil and gas, and industrial markets. This segment also manufactures connectors for use in various bio-processing applications; and pumps and compressors that are used to transfer liquid and bulk products in various markets, including refined fuels, liquefied petroleum gas, food/sanitary, transportation, and chemical process industries. The Refrigeration & Food Equipment segment manufactures refrigeration systems, refrigeration display cases, specialty glass, commercial glass refrigerator and freezer doors, and brazed heat exchangers; and electrical distribution products and engineering services, commercial food service equipment, cook-chill production systems, custom food storage and preparation products, kitchen ventilation systems, conveyer systems, and beverage can-making machinery. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Downers Grove, Illinois.
General Mills, Inc. manufactures and markets branded consumer foods worldwide. The company operates in five segments: North America Retail; Convenience Stores & Foodservice; Europe & Australia; Asia & Latin America; and Pet. It offers ready-to-eat cereals, refrigerated yogurt, soup, meal kits, refrigerated and frozen dough products, dessert and baking mixes, frozen pizza and pizza snacks, grain, fruit, and savory snacks, as well as organic products, including refrigerated yogurt, nutrition bars, meal kits, salty snacks, ready-to-eat cereal, and grain snacks. It also supplies branded and unbranded food products to the North American foodservice and commercial baking industries; and manufactures and markets pet food products, including dog and cat food. The company markets its products under the Annie’s, Betty Crocker, Bisquick, Blue Buffalo, BLUE Basics, BLUE Freedom, BLUE Wilderness, Bugles, Cascadian Farm, Cheerios, Chex, Cinnamon Toast Crunch, Cocoa Puffs, Cookie Crisp, EPIC, Fiber One, Food Should Taste Good, Fruit by the Foot, Fruit Gushers, Fruit Roll-Ups, Gardetto’s, Go-Gurt, Gold Medal, Golden Grahams, Haagen-Dazs, Helpers, Jeno’s, Jus-Rol, Kitano, Kix, La Saltena, Larabar, Latina, Liberte, Lucky Charms, Muir Glen, Nature Valley, Oatmeal Crisp, Old El Paso, Pillsbury, Progresso, Raisin Nut Bran, Total, Totino’s, Trix, Wanchai Ferry, Wheaties, Yoki, and Yoplait trademarks. General Mills sells its products directly, as well as through broker and distribution arrangements to grocery stores, mass merchandisers, membership stores, natural food chains, e-commerce retailers, commercial and noncommercial foodservice distributors and operators, restaurants, convenience stores, and pet specialty stores, as well as drug, dollar, and discount chains. It operates 507 leased and 372 franchise branded ice cream parlors. The company was founded in 1866 and is based in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer, networking, data storage, and communication platforms worldwide. The company operates through Client Computing Group, Data Center Group, Internet of Things Group, Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group, Programmable Solutions Group, and All Other segments. Its platforms are used in notebooks, desktops, and wireless and wired connectivity products; enterprise, cloud, and communication infrastructure market segments; and retail, automotive, industrial, and various other embedded applications. The company offers microprocessors, and system-on-chip and multichip packaging products. It also provides NAND flash memory products primarily used in solid-state drives; and programmable semiconductors and related products for communications, data center, industrial, military, and automotive markets. In addition, the company develops computer vision and machine learning, data analysis, localization, and mapping for advanced driver assistance systems and autonomous driving. It serves original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, industrial and communication equipment manufacturers, and cloud service providers. The company was founded in 1968 and is based in Santa Clara, California.
Kimberly-Clark Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets personal care, consumer tissue, and professional products worldwide. It operates through three segments: Personal Care, Consumer Tissue, and K-C Professional. The Personal Care segment offers disposable diapers, training and youth pants, swimpants, baby wipes, feminine and incontinence care products, and other related products under the Huggies, Pull-Ups, Little Swimmers, GoodNites, DryNites, Kotex, U by Kotex, Intimus, Depend, Plenitud, Poise, and other brand names. The Consumer Tissue segment provides facial and bathroom tissues, paper towels, napkins, and related products under the Kleenex, Scott, Cottonelle, Viva, Andrex, Scottex, Neve, and other brand names. The K-C Professional segment offers wipers, tissues, towels, apparel, soaps, and sanitizers under the Kleenex, Scott, WypAll, Kimtech, and Jackson Safety brands. The company sells household use products directly to supermarkets, mass merchandisers, drugstores, warehouse clubs, variety and department stores, and other retail outlets, as well as through other distributors and e-commerce; and away-from-home use products directly to manufacturing, lodging, office building, food service, and public facilities, as well as through distributors. Kimberly-Clark Corporation was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
The Kroger Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer in the United States. It also manufactures and processes food products for sale in its supermarkets. The company operates supermarkets, multi-department stores, jewelry stores, and convenience stores. Its combination food and drug stores offer natural food and organic sections, pharmacies, general merchandise, pet centers, fresh seafood, and organic produce; multi-department stores provide general merchandise items, such as apparel, home fashion and furnishings, outdoor living, electronics, automotive products, toys, and fine jewelry; and price impact warehouse stores offer grocery, and health and beauty care items, as well as meat, dairy, baked goods, and fresh produce items. The company’s marketplace stores comprise full-service grocery, pharmacy, health and beauty care departments, and perishable goods, as well as general merchandise, including apparel, home goods, and toys; and convenience stores comprise a limited assortment of staple food items and general merchandise, as well as sells fuel. It operates under the banner brands, such as Kroger, Ralphs, Fred Meyer, King Soopers, etc., as well as Simple Truth and Simple Truth Organic brands. As of March 8, 2018, the company operated 2,800 retail food stores under various banner names, as well as an online retail store. The Kroger Co. was founded in 1883 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Leggett & Platt, Incorporated designs and produces various engineered components and products worldwide. It operates through four segments: Residential Products, Furniture Products, Industrial Products, and Specialized Products. The Residential Products segment offers innersprings, wire forms, and machines to shape wire into various types of springs; industrial sewing/finishing machines, conveyor lines, mattress packaging, and glue-drying equipment, as well as quilting machines; and structural fabrics, carpet cushions, and geo components. It serves manufacturers of finished bedding, upholstered furniture, packaging, filtration, and draperies; retailers and distributors of carpet cushions; and contractors, landscapers, road construction companies, and government agencies using geo components. The Furniture Products segment offers molded plywood components; bases, columns, back rests, control devices, and casters and frames; private-label finished furniture; beds and bed frames; adjustable beds; and steel mechanisms and hardware, and springs and seat suspensions. It serves upholstered and office furniture manufacturers; department stores and big box retailers; e-commerce retailers; and mattress and furniture retailers. The Industrial Products segment offers drawn wires, bedding and furniture components, automotive seat suspension systems, and steel rods. It serves packaging and baling companies, mechanical spring manufacturers, and wire distributors. The Specialized Products segment offers mechanical and pneumatic lumbar support and massage systems, seat suspension systems, motors and actuators, and cables; titanium, nickel, and stainless steel tubing, formed tube, and tube assemblies; and engineered hydraulic cylinders. It serves automobile and mobile equipment OEMs, and aerospace suppliers. The company sells its products through sales representatives and distributors. Leggett & Platt, Incorporated was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Carthage, Missouri.
Lowe’s Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It offers a line of products for maintenance, repair, remodeling, and decorating. The company provides home improvement products in various categories, such as lumber and building materials, tools and hardware, appliances, fashion fixtures, rough plumbing and electrical, seasonal and outdoor living, lawn and garden, paint, millwork, flooring, and kitchens, as well as outdoor power equipment. It also offers installation services through independent contractors in various product categories; extended protection plans; and in-warranty and out-of-warranty repair services. The company sells its national brand-name merchandise and private branded products to homeowners, renters, and professional customers. As of March 26, 2018, it operated 2,390 home improvement and hardware stores. The company also sells its products through online sites comprising Lowes.com and Lowesforpros.com; and through mobile applications. Lowe’s Companies, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is based in Mooresville, North Carolina.
Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes, smokeless products, and wine in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; cigars principally under the Black & Mild brand; and moist smokeless tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands. The company also produces and sells varietal and blended table wines, and sparkling wines under the Chateau Ste. Michelle, Columbia Crest, and 14 Hands names; and imports and markets Antinori, Torres, and Villa Maria Estate wines, as well as Champagne Nicolas Feuillatte in the United States. In addition, it provides finance leasing services primarily in aircraft, electric power, railcar, real estate, and manufacturing industries. The company sells its tobacco products primarily to wholesalers, including distributors; large retail organizations, such as chain stores; and the armed services. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Oracle Corporation develops, manufactures, markets, sells, hosts, and supports application, platform, and infrastructure solutions for information technology (IT) environments worldwide. The company provides services in three primary layers of the cloud: Software as a Service, Platform as a Service, and Infrastructure as a Service. It offers human capital and talent management, enterprise resource planning, customer experience and relationship management, procurement, supply chain management, project portfolio management, business analytics and enterprise performance management, and industry-specific application software, as well as financial management and governance, and risk and compliance applications. The company also licenses its Oracle Database for storage, retrieval, and manipulation of data; and Oracle Fusion Middleware software to build, deploy, secure, access, extend, and integrate business applications, as well as automate business processes. In addition, it provides a range of development tools, identity management, and business analytics software solutions for mobile computing development to address the development needs of businesses; Java, a software development language; and big data solutions. Further, the company provides Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, and hardware support products, as well as operating systems, virtualization, management, and other hardware-related software. Additionally, it provides consulting services, including IT strategy alignment, enterprise architecture planning and design, initial software implementation and integration, application development and integration, security assessments, and ongoing software enhancements and upgrade services; and customer support and education services. The company serves businesses, government agencies, educational institutions, and resellers. Oracle Corporation was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.
Parker-Hannifin Corporation manufactures and sells motion and control technologies and systems for various mobile, industrial, and aerospace markets worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Diversified Industrial and Aerospace Systems. The Diversified Industrial segment provides static and dynamic sealing devices; filters, systems, and diagnostics solutions to monitor and remove contaminants from fuel, air, oil, water, and other liquids and gases; connectors, which control, transmit, and contain fluid; hydraulic, pneumatic, and electromechanical components and systems for builders and users of industrial and mobile machinery and equipment; and critical flow components for process instrumentation, healthcare, and ultra-high-purity applications, as well as components for use in refrigeration and air conditioning systems, and in fluid control applications for processing, fuel dispensing, beverage dispensing, and mobile emissions. This segment sells its products to original equipment manufacturers and their replacement markets in manufacturing, packaging, processing, transportation, mobile construction, refrigeration and air conditioning, agricultural, and military machinery and equipment industries. The Aerospace Systems segment offers products for use in commercial and military airframe and engine programs, including control actuation systems and components, engine systems and components, fluid conveyance systems and components, fuel systems and components, fuel tank inserting systems, hydraulic systems and components, lubrication components, pneumatic control components, power conditioning and management systems, thermal management products, and wheels and brakes. This segment markets its products directly to original equipment manufacturers and end users. The company markets its products through direct-sales employees, independent distributors, and sales representatives. Parker-Hannifin Corporation was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
Philip Morris International Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes, other tobacco products, and other nicotine-containing products. Its portfolio of brands comprises Marlboro, Parliament, Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark, Philip Morris, Merit, Virginia S., Muratti, and Next. The company also owns various cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A, and Sampoerna U in Indonesia; Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines; Belmont and Canadian Classics in Canada; and Delicados in Mexico. Philip Morris International Inc. markets and sells its products in the European Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Canada. The company has a strategic collaboration with Parallax Development Corp. for the development and commercialization of a nicotine-delivery system. Philip Morris International Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
PPG Industries, Inc. manufactures and distributes paints, coatings, and specialty materials in the United States and internationally. It operates through Performance Coatings and Industrial Coatings segments. The Performance Coatings segment provides coatings products for automotive and commercial transport/fleet repair and refurbishing; light industrial and specialty coatings for signs; coatings, sealants, and transparencies for commercial, military, regional jet and general aviation aircraft, and transparent armor; protective and marine coatings and finishes; architectural coatings; and purchased sundries to painting contractors and consumers, as well as chemical management services. The Industrial Coatings segment provides adhesives and sealants for the automotive industry; metal pretreatments and related chemicals for industrial and automotive applications; packaging coatings for the protection, performance, and decoration of metal cans, closures, plastic tubes, industrial packaging, and promotional and specialty packaging; precipitated silicas for tire, battery separator, and other markets; substrates for use in radio frequency identification tags and labels, e-passports, drivers’ licenses, and identification cards; organic light emitting diode materials for use in displays and lighting; optical lens materials and photochromic dyes for optical lenses and color-change products. The company was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. provides tools and storage, engineered fastening and infrastructure, and security solutions worldwide. The company’s Tools & Storage segment offers professional products, including corded and cordless electric power tools and equipment, drills, impact wrenches and drivers, grinders, saws, routers, and sanders, as well as pneumatic tools and fasteners, including nail guns, nails, staplers and staples, and concrete and masonry anchors; and consumer products, such as lawn and garden products comprising hedge and string trimmers, lawn mowers, and edgers and related accessories, as well as home products, such as hand-held vacuums, paint tools, and cleaning appliances. It also offers hand tools, including planes, hammers, demolition tools, clamps, vises, knives, chisels, and industrial and automotive tools, as well as measuring, leveling, and layout tools; power tool accessories; and storage products. The company’s Industrial segment sells engineered fastening products and systems, which include blind rivets and tools, blind inserts and tools, drawn arc weld studs and systems, engineered plastic and mechanical fasteners, self-piercing riveting systems, precision nut running systems, micro fasteners, and high-strength structural fasteners; sells and rents custom pipe handling, joint welding, and coating equipment; provides pipeline inspection services; and sells hydraulic tools and accessories. Its Security segment provides alarm and fire alarm monitoring, video surveillance, systems integration, and system maintenance solutions; sells healthcare solutions, which include asset tracking, wander and fall management, and emergency call products, as well as infant, pediatric, and patient protection products; and sells automatic doors. The company was formerly known as The Stanley Works and changed its name to Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. in March 2010. The company was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in New Britain, Connecticut.
I hope this information can provide additional input on your due diligence regarding quality and valuation. Investing in equities only when they are fairly valued or undervalued is an important method for achieving both an adequate total return and an adequate level of income. Valuation and earnings growth are the two primary drivers of long-term return.